Zero-emission bus volumes fall but market share reaches record high

SMMT: Overall bus market decline driven by fall in uptake of minibuses

UK registrations of new buses, coaches and minibuses fell -37.7% to 1,578 units in Q1 2026 as demand eased following last year’s 17-year high, according to new data published by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT).

Sales of zero-emission bus volumes fell -20.4% to 588 units, yet out-performed the overall market as nearly two in five (37.3%) new buses registered were ZEVs – a record market share and clear evidence of the sector’s rapid transition to electric and hydrogen.

The third consecutive quarterly decline was driven primarily by a -56.0% drop in minibus registrations, from 1,299 units to 572. The wider market also softened, with single-decker registrations down -15.5% to 584 units and double-deckers down -22.1% to 422 units. The year-on-year fall is amplified by comparison with an unusually strong Q1 2025, when overall registrations surged by 49.8% thanks to Zero Emission Bus Regional Area (ZEBRA) grants.

Every UK nation and region recorded lower registrations. Wales saw the sharpest proportional fall, down -75.7% to 36 units, becoming the smallest national market, swapping places with Northern Ireland which dipped -7.5% to 37 units. England remained the biggest market, accounting for 88.5% of UK registrations, despite volumes falling -28.5% to 1,397 vehicles. Scotland, where uptake more than doubled last year due in part to the ScotZEB programme, declined -73.8% to 102 units.

The SMMT says that while the market is slowing after two years of growth, recent announcements auger well for future growth. The government’s vision for buses, published at the start of April, aims to make bus journeys simpler and more affordable for passengers, helping boost ridership, and the local authority zero-emission bus order pipeline anticipates a further 23,381 deliveries by the end of 2035. However, support is still needed, particularly for local authorities that face greater challenges in transitioning to zero emission bus fleets, such as those in more rural areas.

Stimulating investment into fleets will help accelerate the decarbonisation of road transport while also delivering significant improvements in air quality and reducing noise pollution across the UK. The SMMT said action is needed, however, to speed up grid connections at bus depots, which often require significant, costly upgrades to provide the power needed to keep fleets fully charged.

Mike Hawes, SMMT chief executive, said: “After the bus market’s boost over the past two years, a decline was always inevitable as the market stabilises. With zero-emission buses taking such a high market share, however, all signs point to a market that is eagerly transitioning. Manufacturers have made massive investments in zero-emission buses and public funding schemes have helped drive adoption. With more local commitments to ZEV bus procurement, the market can grow, and the UK can get ever closer to a nationwide zero emission bus network.”