The conflict in the Middle East has created the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market, due to the near halt in shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
The loss of supply is having significant impacts in global markets, pushing up prices for crude oil above $100 per barrel, and is leading to much higher prices for some refined products – notably diesel, jet fuel and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).
Concerns are growing about the impacts of higher prices on households, businesses and the broader economy.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has set out a range of demand-side actions that governments, businesses and households can take to alleviate the economic impacts on consumers of the disruptions to oil markets stemming from the war in the Middle East.
The Middle East conflict has triggered the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market, with shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries around 20% of global oil consumption, reduced to a trickle.
Around 20 million barrels per day of crude oil and oil products typically transit the Strait. The loss of these flows has tightened markets significantly, pushing crude oil prices above $100 per barrel and driving even sharper increases in refined products such as diesel, jet fuel and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).
Restoring transit through the Strait of Hormuz remains essential to stabilise global energy markets. In the meantime, countries are acting on both supply and demand.
On 11 March, IEA member countries agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil from emergency reserves – the largest stock draw in the agency’s history.
However, supply-side measures alone cannot fully offset the scale of the disruption. Addressing demand is a critical and immediate tool to reduce pressure consumers by improving affordability and supporting energy security.
A new IEA report identifies ten measures that can be implemented quickly by governments, businesses and households.
Immediate actions to reduce demand
These actions focus primarily on road transport, which accounts for around 45% of global oil demand, but also cover aviation, cooking and industry. Widespread adoption, where possible, would amplify their global impact and help cushion the shock.
“The war in the Middle East is creating a major energy crisis, including the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. In the absence of a swift resolution, the impacts on energy markets and economies are set to become more and more severe,” said IEA executive director Fatih Birol.
“As the global energy authority, the IEA is doing everything we can to support the stability of energy markets. We have recently launched the largest ever release of IEA emergency oil stocks – and I am in close contact with key governments around the world, including major energy producers and consumers, as part of our international energy diplomacy.
“In addition to this, today’s report provides a menu of immediate and concrete measures that can be taken on the demand side by governments, businesses and households to shelter consumers from the impacts of this crisis. It draws on the IEA’s decades of expertise in this field and highlights measures that have been proven to work in practice in different contexts. I believe it will be of use to governments around the world, in both advanced and developing economies, in these challenging times.”
In road transport, a combination of behavioural and policy measures can deliver rapid savings, says the IEA. Many of these measures have been implemented in the past and are again being considered in several countries.
Working from home where possible reduces fuel demand for commuting, while lowering highway speed limits by at least 10 kilometres per hour cuts fuel use across both passenger vehicles and freight.
Encouraging a shift from private cars to public transport, alongside measures such as alternating private vehicle access in large cities, can further reduce congestion and fuel consumption. Additional gains can be achieved through car sharing and more efficient driving practices, as well as improved efficiency in freight and delivery operations.
Beyond road transport, targeted actions can ease pressure on fuels that are particularly constrained, advises the IEA. A reduction in air travel where alternatives exist can significantly lower demand for jet fuel.
Measures to shift LPG use away from transport and towards essential applications, such as cooking, can help protect vulnerable households. At the same time, encouraging the uptake of alternative clean cooking solutions where feasible can reduce reliance on LPG and avoid a return to more polluting fuels that harm people’s health.
Industry also has an important role to play, says the IEA. In countries where LPG supplies are under pressure, facilities may be able to switch from LPG to alternative feedstocks such as naphtha. This can free up LPG supply for urgent uses – and can be complemented by short-term efficiency and maintenance measures that can deliver additional reductions in oil consumption.
The International Energy Agency says governments can lead by example through public sector measures, regulatory action and targeted incentives while ensuring that support for consumers is timed appropriately and focused on those most in need. Experience from previous crises shows that well-targeted support mechanisms are more effective and fiscally sustainable than broad-based subsidies.
While the demand-side measures highlighted in the report cannot match the scale of disrupted supply, they can play a meaningful role in lowering costs for consumers, reducing markets strains and preserving fuels for essential uses until normal flows resume.
The IEA also published an overview of all demand-related policy measures that have been announced by governments since the start of the crisis. This shows many countries are already acting to protect consumers through conservation and financial measures similar to those discussed in the Sheltering from Oil Shocks report.
The International Energy Agency is a Paris-based autonomous intergovernmental organization, established in 1974, that provides policy recommendations, analysis and data on the global energy sector. The 32 member countries and 13 association countries of the IEA represent 75% of global energy demand.
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