Local Transport Today is the authoritative, independent journal for transport decision makers. Analysis, Comment & News on Transport Policy, Planning, Finance and Delivery since 1989.

Let’s be open to change as we develop transparent forecasts

As transport modellers we must be more open to the art of the possible, stay wary of the politics of the preferable and remain committed to the science of the probable, writes Tom van Vuren

18 September 2021


Few people can have been more delighted than me to see DfT publishing its Uncertainty Toolkit, and the inclusion of six Common Analytical Scenarios for modelling and appraisal.

I have advocated the modelling of alternative futures since 2014, and others long before that. The common scenarios provide modellers with coherent futures that enable us to provide consistent forecasts across projects and programmes that help decision-makers incorporate uncertainty when promoting policies or projects....

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