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Modelling of M25 scheme was seriously in error

David Metz UCL Centre For Transport Studies www.drivingchange.org.uk
18 May 2021

Andrew Gordon and Tom van Vuren comment on my analysis of the outcome of widening a section of the M25 in relation to the forecast generated by the traffic model (LTT 30 April). They observe that scheme benefits are conventionally calculated by comparing the with-project travel demand and journey times against the without-project case. So, they argue, what matters is what would have happened if the scheme had not been built, which can only be estimated from the model results. From this...

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