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Ten rail forecasting lessons offered by Steer

RAIL

12 May 2017
 

Consultant Jim Steer has provided the Commission with ten lessons from his career in rail demand forecasting:

1. Unexpected changes in the supply side can undermine demand forecasts

“The case of Eurostar and the CTRL (Channel Tunnel Rail Link, now HS1) is widely regarded as a good example of poor forecasting. But projections of very high rail market share of London-Brussels (60%+)/Paris (80%) markets for Eurostar based on logit models made in the period 1992-94 were accurate and borne out...

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