Forget complexity, models should be simple

In the last issue we covered a new report by Yaron Hollander, a former Transport for London modelling manager, looking at ten misuses of transport models. This is one of a selection of responses from within the modelling community

© David Orrell [homepage www.postpythagorean.com] is an applied mathematician and author. His next book The Evolution of Money will be published by Columbia University Press in 2016.

© David Orrell [homepage www.postpythagorean.com] is an applied mathematician and author. His next book The Evolution of Money will be published by Columbia University Press in 2016.

The report by Yaron Hollander accurately identifies a number of different types of ‘model abuse’ in transport forecasting. I would just add a couple of comments. One is that these problems are not unique to transport, but are common in many other areas of forecasting as well, as I found while researching my 2007 book The Future of Everything: The Science of Prediction. This is especially the case when the incentives of the forecasters are entwined with the outcome of the...

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