The DfT’s modelling tools fail to predict all the recent slump in UK aviation demand following the 2008 financial crisis, the Department admits.
“Even when outturn data for all the key drivers of demand are input into the model, the forecasts of UK air passenger numbers for 2009 and 2010 exceed observed passenger numbers,” it says. “This forecasting error indicates that UK passenger numbers have been significantly affected in the past two years by a factor (or factors)...
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