Local Transport Today is the authoritative, independent journal for transport decision makers. Analysis, Comment & News on Transport Policy, Planning, Finance and Delivery since 1989.

Forget complexity, models should be simple

In the last issue we covered a new report by Yaron Hollander, a former Transport for London modelling manager, looking at ten misuses of transport models. This is one of a selection of responses from within the modelling community

David Orrell, www.postpythagorean.com
© David Orrell [homepage www.postpythagorean.com] is an applied mathematician and author. His next book The Evolution of Money will be published by Columbia University Press in 2016.
© David Orrell [homepage www.postpythagorean.com] is an applied mathematician and author. His next book The Evolution of Money will be published by Columbia University Press in 2016.

 

The report by Yaron Hollander accurately identifies a number of different types of ‘model abuse’ in transport forecasting. I would just add a couple of comments. One is that these problems are not unique to transport, but are common in many other areas of forecasting as well, as I found while researching my 2007 book The Future of Everything: The Science of Prediction. This is especially the case when the incentives of the forecasters are entwined with the outcome of the...

+82% more

 


TransportXtra is part of Landor LINKS

© 2024 TransportXtra | Landor LINKS Ltd | All Rights Reserved

Subscriptions, Magazines & Online Access Enquires
[Frequently Asked Questions]
Email: subs.ltt@landor.co.uk | Tel: +44 (0) 20 7091 7959

Shop & Accounts Enquires
Email: accounts@landor.co.uk | Tel: +44 (0) 20 7091 7855

Advertising Sales & Recruitment Enquires
Email: daniel@landor.co.uk | Tel: +44 (0) 20 7091 7861

Events & Conference Enquires
Email: conferences@landor.co.uk | Tel: +44 (0) 20 7091 7865

Press Releases & Editorial Enquires
Email: info@transportxtra.com | Tel: +44 (0) 20 7091 7875

Privacy Policy | Terms and Conditions | Advertise

Web design london by Brainiac Media 2020