London’s bus speeds are dropping and ridership is directly tied to bus journey times. Transport for London (TfL) has said (and the last issue of LTT reiterated this) that “for every 10% reduction in speed, there is a 6% drop in demand” for buses in London. These are undisputed facts. What is disputed is why bus speeds keep dropping and what to do about that and falling ridership.
Looking at Government data1 for bus ridership inside London versus the rest of England, you can see a remarkable pattern.
London has been criticised for its extensive cycling infrastructure, nearly all arriving post 2013, but despite few other urban areas in the UK delivering anything like the changes London has seen, bus ridership in the capital very closely correlates to that across England.
Indeed, the London bus ridership trajectory overtakes England’s in the post 2013 period and recovered quicker post-pandemic, despite London putting in hundreds of active travel schemes during it.
So, if cycling’s not the issue, what is? Here’s some uncomfortable questions for those who blame cycling…
1. Why are private motor traffic volumes rising nationally and indeed in London? What can we do to stop that? Hint: road-user charging. The Clean Cities campaign2 points out that post-peak evening driving in central London is now higher than morning peak – people are choosing to drive more when congestion charging is suspended.
2. What can we do to get rid of more parking or loading on TfL’s red routes and make more bus lanes 24/7? Why is TfL behind on its ‘bus priority action plan’? And why is it so weak? And why have TfL Buses never championed major successful bus gate schemes such as on Bishopsgate, Bank Junction and Stoke Newington Church Street? These were largely promoted as active travel measures.
3. How should TfL deal better with bus delays at junctions? The plan currently appears to be to increase motor vehicle capacity through junctions, as buses are often mixed in with it, despite ‘induced demand’ and risks to safe active travel. Surely giving buses separate priority at junctions is key?
4. What other factors are even considered? Most changes clearly slowing down buses (roadworks, internet shopping, post-pandemic driving for leisure) appear to have nothing to do with cycling. And what about junction redesigns that (rightly) prioritise pedestrian safety?
Without coherent answers, we’ll be stuck with an endless and unseemly scrap for capacity between cycling (and walking) and buses that still serves all those modes poorly.
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