Don’t blame the Budget or hybrids, November’s always slower for new car sales

The Car Expert’s Stuart Masson reacts to new car registrations results from Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders

New car registration figures for November from Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) paint a picture that is far more stable than the headlines suggest. 

Looking beyond the month-on-month numbers, November registrations over the past three ‘post-COVID’ years (2023–25) sit almost exactly where they did in the three years immediately before the pandemic (2017–19), consistently in the 150,000–160,000 range. In other words, despite the noise around the market, November has essentially returned to its long-term normal.

Each year, the Budget tends to take the blame for any November dip, and the SMMT has leaned into that narrative again. But the comparison does not quite hold this time. Registrations fell against last November too, and that month also followed a bleak Budget. So while fiscal uncertainty seldom helps consumer confidence, it is clearly not the sole driver of this year’s slowdown. Broader economic caution, high household costs and persistent hesitation around electrification all remain part of the backdrop.

What stands out most in the data is the continued strength of plug-in hybrids. PHEVs are again the fastest-growing fuel type, even if their total volume remains below that of conventional hybrids and still only around 40% of EV registrations. The story here is not just about growth, but where that growth is coming from.

Some buyers are clearly shifting away from petrol and diesel, but there is also evidence that PHEVs are capturing customers who might otherwise have taken the step into a full EV.

The Chancellor’s ambiguous mileage-tax announcement has only sharpened that dynamic. For many drivers, a plug-in hybrid now offers the most pragmatic and financially sensible route through the next few years of policy uncertainty: electric running for everyday use, conventional range for longer trips, and, crucially, only half the mileage tax liability of a full EV. Given that structure, the appeal is obvious.

But from a policy standpoint, it is a headache. The government has a Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Mandate to satisfy and a stated intention to phase out hybrids entirely over the next decade. Encouraging a swing back towards PHEVs, even inadvertently, risks undermining progress towards those targets. It is difficult to reconcile a mandate pushing manufacturers to accelerate EV delivery with a taxation signal that nudges many consumers in the opposite direction.

What we are seeing is not a collapse in demand, but a market trying to find a path through mixed messages. Buyers are behaving rationally. The question is whether government policy is doing the same.

Stuart Masson is editorial director of The Car Expert