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National Transport Model peer review identifies output ‘flaws’

Modelling

11 January 2021
 

A peer review of the DfT’s National Transport Model (NTM) has questioned the credibility of model output showing that massively increasing road capacity results in lower motorway traffic volumes. The review team also expresses concern about a ‘backcasting’ exercise that shows a big discrepancy between forecast and actual car kilometre growth in London. 

The peer review examined an updated version of the NTMv2, known as NTMv2R. The review team comprised John Bates (John...

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