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How people respond to transport improvements, and people’s sensitivity to changes in bus fares and journey times are discussed in a new report released by the DfT. Andrew Forster looks at the findings

Andrew Forster
20 July 2018
The figures indicate where new trips on the intervention mode (first column) originate from. To illustrate using the first row, for an intervention that improves bus services, 33 per cent of new bus commuters transfer from car, 10 per cent transfer from rail, 5 per cent from light rail, 8 per cent from cycle, 15 per cent from walking, 13 per cent from taxi, 9 per cent previously didn’t travel (generated trips), and 8 per cent ‘other’.
The figures indicate where new trips on the intervention mode (first column) originate from. To illustrate using the first row, for an intervention that improves bus services, 33 per cent of new bus commuters transfer from car, 10 per cent transfer from rail, 5 per cent from light rail, 8 per cent from cycle, 15 per cent from walking, 13 per cent from taxi, 9 per cent previously didn’t travel (generated trips), and 8 per cent ‘other’.

 

‘Diversion factors’ and ‘elasticities’ may sound like dull jargon but they are crucial to demand forecasting, providing estimates for how transport investments and changes in fares or journey times influence people’s travel choices.

Diversion factors are used in transport appraisal to estimate the source and extent of new traffic on one mode resulting from an intervention (such as an investment, improvement/deterioration of a service, fare change, or policy change...

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