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DfT tests use of NTS data to improve rail demand forecasts


Andrew Forster
28 April 2017
Rail demand has diverged from forecasts using WebTAG (and PDFH) recommendations
Rail demand has diverged from forecasts using WebTAG (and PDFH) recommendations


The DfT is exploring if the accuracy of rail demand forecasts could be improved by incorporating data from the National Travel Survey (NTS).

Since 2005 actual rail demand has outstripped forecasts made using the rail industry’s Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook (PDFH) and DfT WebTAG modelling recommendations, which focus on income and employment as demand drivers. The hope is that use of socio-economic and demographic influences on rail travel, revealed by the NTS, can improve...

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