What knowledge lies behind cycle forecast?

The DfT’s prediction that cycle volumes will decline raises important questions about its modelling

The DfT predicts cycling trips will decline from 2015 onwards

The DfT predicts cycling trips will decline from 2015 onwards

The astute Times reporter Philip Pank wrote last week ‘Funding cuts fear as cycling is forecast to drop’. The funding cuts were not in any official statement, but the forecasts were as official as you can get – results from the Department for Transport’s National Travel Model (NTM), announced in Parliament by the transport minister, Robert Goodwill. The suggestion was that although cycle trips would rise a little between now and 2015, both trips and mileage travelled by...

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