Traffic scenarios for policy development

Scenarios are much better than forecasts because they acknowledge that a range of views on the future are valid

Fig. 1 Suggested Increasing, Stable and Reducing Traffic Scenarios for Appraisal

Fig. 1 Suggested Increasing, Stable and Reducing Traffic Scenarios for Appraisal

A forecast often has the intended implication ‘this is what we think will happen’ and a scenario is ‘this is what we think could happen’. The really important reasons for using scenarios are when there is a significant degree of uncertainty or disagreement about the future, or when an official forecast lacks credibility or consensus, or when the future path of policy itself is undetermined, or when ‘thinking outside the box’ is essential because a described...

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