EV headlines miss the real story

The Car Expert: Chinese brands quietly reshape the UK market, says Stuart Masson

The latest UK new car registration data released by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) tell a very different story from the one suggested by the headlines. As usual, much of the focus this month is on EV market share. And again, as usual, that is not the most interesting story in the data, nor is it where the most significant change in the market is taking place.

What stands out most in this month’s data is the speed at which new Chinese entrants are reshaping the UK market. Combined, BYD UK and Chery Group brands registered nearly 13,000 cars between them, which is more than Volkswagen UK – still the UK’s biggest individual brand. The overall market only grew by fewer than 5,000 cars year-on-year, which means that the rest of the market went down, not up, as the figures suggest.

In fact, if you remove BYD, Chery Group and the other recent Chinese arrivals such as Leapmotor, Changan and Geely, the rest of the market was actually down around 4% compared to the same month last year. What appears to be growth is, in reality, rapid displacement.

The Chery example on its own is particularly telling. Through Omoda, Jaecoo and Chery, the group was effectively the country’s third-biggest seller this month, with a fourth brand, Lepas, set to join the line-up later this year. Individually, the Jaecoo 7 outsold more than half of the car brands operating in the UK, despite not existing in the market just 12 months ago.

These same brands are also driving the continued surge in plug-in hybrid sales. The Jaecoo 7, BYD Seal U and MG HS all feature in the month’s top ten and are predominantly plug-in hybrid models. This reinforces a point that has been clear for months: watering down the UK’s EV plans will not ‘save’ UK car manufacturing. China will simply continue sending more cars, powered by whatever fuel the government requires.

This is also why the EV headline needs careful interpretation. Take Tesla, for example, with its notoriously volatile month-to-month numbers. In January, it was down 51%. Had it registered cars at similar levels to last January, the entire EV sector would have comfortably exceeded overall market growth. That does not necessarily indicate a collapse in demand, but rather the way manufacturers might be managing registrations around ZEV mandate targets and operational flexibility. By the end of the first quarter, we will have a much clearer picture of where the market really sits.

As of today, the SMMT lists 54 car brands operating in the UK. More are arriving this year, including Lepas under the Chery umbrella, Mitsubishi and Denza. But with brands like Fisker already disappearing and others that appear to be struggling, the real question is not how many brands are coming – it is how many of the current ones will still be here in a few years’ time?

Stuart Masson is editorial director of The Car Expert