European EV policy needs keep moving forward

The Energy Transitions Commission’s Mike Hemsley advises against diluting the 2035 phase-out of ICE vehicles in Europe

The European Commission has announced a new Automotive Package which revises the previous ambition to end sales of new petrol and diesel cars across the European Union from 2035.

Diluting the 2035 ICE phase-out weakens one of the most effective levers for accelerating the transition to electric cars and trucks and risks locking in higher oil use and higher household bills. 

New Energy Transitions Commission data shows electrification is the most effective way of allowing people to travel more using far less energy, thereby lowering emissions. It is the single biggest driver of efficiency in road transport, with the potential to reduce energy demand by around 70% by 2050 compared with an all-ICE fleet, even as the number of kilometres travelled rises by 70%.

EVs convert most of their energy into movement while petrol cars lose about 75% as heat — making EVs more efficient even on fossil-powered grids, and dramatically more so on clean ones. With further expected advances in batteries and motor technology, EV efficiency could improve by a further 50% by 2050, significantly cutting down road-transport energy use.

A five-year delay in the phase-out increases cumulative emissions, prolongs dependence on imported oil, and risks locking older ICE vehicles on the road well into the 2040s. And without EV fleet mandates as well, Europe misses a major opportunity to cut emissions this decade. There is also a growing competitiveness risk as Europe continues to focus on combustion engines, while Chinese manufacturers expand the production of cost-effective EVs at scale.

Policy certainty tends to increase investment and innovation, ultimately reducing costs. Europe needs policies that point firmly in one direction – forward – and focuses on lowering long-term energy costs and promoting energy security. Electrification of motor transport does just that. 

Mike Hemsley is deputy director of the Energy Transitions Commission