Europe has not performed u-turn on electric vehicles

The EU has softened its 2035 target, but the direction of travel remains unchanged, says The Car Expert’s Stuart Masson

The European Union’s revised 2035 new-car emissions target were published yesterday. Some of the reaction to the EU’s revised 2035 target has been wildly overblown. This is not a U-turn, an abandonment of electrification, or the death of the electric car. It is a modest 10% reduction in a long-term target, not a fundamental change of direction.

Under the revised proposals, the EU has eased its 2035 requirement from 100% zero-emission new-car sales to 90%. That is hardly an about-face, despite how it has been portrayed in some headlines, and it still means the vast majority of new cars sold from that point must be electric.

Electric vehicles (EVs) currently account for just under 20% of new car sales across the EU. Moving to a 90% target still requires an increase of around 70% in market share over the next decade, rather than 80%. That remains a huge uplift, equivalent to roughly eight million additional EVs being added to European roads every year by 2035. By any meaningful definition, that is not a slowdown.

It is also important to be clear about what the remaining 10% actually means. If only a tenth of new cars sold after 2035 can be petrol, diesel or hybrid, most manufacturers will still abandon these powertrains altogether. A slice of that size does not profitably divide across more than 50 manufacturers, and so most car makers are still likely to abandon combustion engines entirely. The handful of vehicles that survive are likely to be niche products, either serving specialist use cases where EVs remain impractical, or aimed at a small group of buyers who simply refuse to switch to electric under any circumstances.

The bigger question is whether this adjustment is a one-off change to the EU’s roadmap, or whether it opens the door to further lobbying and additional reductions in the target in the years ahead. That uncertainty matters far more to manufacturers than the headline number itself, particularly when they are making multi-billion-pound investment decisions years in advance.

This will certainly not slow the expansion of Chinese manufacturers into Europe, either. If anything, it plays to their strengths. China can ramp up production of petrol or hybrid models far faster, and far more cheaply, than European brands. If regulations allow a higher proportion of non-EVs, Chinese manufacturers will simply supply more of them. 

Given the wider economic uncertainty, particularly the instability coming out of the US, it is not surprising that the EU feels pressure to temper the pace of its EV transition and introduce greater flexibility. There will inevitably now be similar pressure for the UK to do the same. However, the idea that easing targets will somehow ‘save’ domestic car manufacturing is misplaced. Delaying the transition does not remove the challenge; it simply delays it. The destination has not changed – only the margins have.”

Stuart Masson is editorial director of The Car Expert

Established in 2011, The Car Expert is an automotive consumer advice platform reaching over two million readers annually. It offers unbiased guidance on all aspects of purchasing, financing, owning, and selling both new and used cars.