High level of uncertainty surrounds EV sales in Europe

T&E: EU 2035 reversal creates huge uncertainty in EV market

The European Union’s plan to weaken car CO2 targets will create high uncertainty in the EV market, says T&E 

The clean transport and energy advocacy T&E has completed an in-depth analysis of the European Commission proposal to revise EU car CO2 targets. 

The T&E analysis finds that, in the most likely scenario:

• EV market share would be reduced to 85% in 2035 – but anywhere between 50-95% is possible
• Car CO2 emissions between 2025-2050 will be 10% higher than under the current target
• The alternative fuels credits and the delayed 2030 target are the two most damaging flexibilities proposed.

Cutting the emissions reduction target from 100% to 90% in 2035 would, in the most likely scenario, reduce the battery electric vehicle (BEV) market share to 85% instead of 100%, T&E estimates. However, BEV sales could range anywhere between 50% and 95%, depending on the powertrain strategy adopted by carmakers.

The precise BEVs share in 2035 will vary depending on the combustion car mix of each carmaker. The 90% CO2 reduction target means that, on average, carmakers’ fleet emissions would have to stay below 11 grams of CO3 per km in 2035. After 2035, this would allow carmakers to sell any type of powertrain. With best-in-class range extenders (EREVs) at 22 g/km, their share could reach up to 50%. T&E said the EU Commission proposal would undermine the certainty Europe needs to invest heavily in electrification and compete with China.

Lucien Mathieu, cars director at T&E, said: “It’s like hedging your bets when there’s only one horse in the race. The world is going electric but the EU proposal would divert investment into other technologies that won’t deliver for the climate or the economy. The current 2035 target provides the investment certainty Europe needs to scale up EV production and compete globally. The proposed changes would mean keeping the combustion engine and hybrid alive and rewarding the laggards.”