Transport modellers consider the impact of COVID on behaviour and models

Will people change their mode preferences? Will we avoid crowded trains and prefer buses; or return to the individually owned car?

Will we decide to avoid crowded trains and prefer buses; or return to the individually owned car?

Will we decide to avoid crowded trains and prefer buses; or return to the individually owned car?

Transport modellers have been quick to respond to the COVID crisis. Luis Willumsen, a regular speaker at Modelling World, transport modeller and director at Kineo Mobility Analytics says: 'Given that most of us are stuck at home, I would like to start a dialogue about the longer-term impact of the pandemic on travel behaviour, and therefore on our models. I have been pondering questions like these:

• As more activities moved to the internet (virtual lectures, work, meetings etc.) when the pandemic is over, will they all return to physical presence? Some would have been found to be equally or more efficiently done virtually; at least some of the time. Trip/tour generation models will have to change.

• I suspect pre-2020 leisure and business trends for international and domestic travel will never fully recover. Trends will have to be adjusted.

• Will people change their mode preferences? Will we decide to avoid crowded trains and prefer buses; or return to the individually owned car as I know how much effort I put keeping it clean with soap and water?

• Is this the end of the road for ride-sharing in a small vehicle? Some Parameters in our utility functions will have to change (including Alternative Specific Constants).

• It has proved more difficult to reduce contagion in large cities like London; would people re-discover their love for smaller and more local urban areas (given that remote work is possible)?

If you have any thoughts or suggestions, please contact Luis on luis.willumsen@kineo-analytics.com

Alternatively, visit Luis' Linked In page to see his and other modellers' comments