Strong travel growth means planned emissions cuts will not halt destructive climate change - study

The international community's ambition to cut carbon-dioxide emissions from the transport sector will not succeed under current and foreseeable policies, according to a new study published by a UN think-tank.

A likely doubling of global transport demand means that even in the most optimistic scenario, CO2 emissions in 2050 will remain at 2015 levels of around 7.5 giga-tonnes rather than being reduced as necessary under the Paris Agreement, according to projections published in the International Transport Forum's ITF Transport Outlook 2017. This is despite new technologies and changed behaviour likely to lead to significantly less CO2 being emitted for the same distance travelled.

“We need to both accelerate innovation and make radical policy choices to decarbonise transport”, said ITF Secretary-General José Viegas on the occasion of the launch. “Technology will provide about 70% of the possible CO2 reductions to 2050. The rest will come from doing things differently, and this is where there is still a lot of potential.” On freight, to limit global warming to two degrees, the ITF urged truck- and warehouse-sharing, on urban mobility pricing to manage car use.