‘Active travel must be at core of joined-up approach to transport’

Tony Duckenfield: The rise of shared transport and urban mobility solutions could mean that support for traditional bus services comes under threat

Tony Duckenfield: The rise of shared transport and urban mobility solutions could mean that support for traditional bus services comes under threat

In the face of shrinking budgets, rising obesity and concerns over air quality, local authorities will have to develop a more joined-up approach to transport, believes Tony Duckenfield, head of behavioural insight at Steer Davies Gleave.

“We can expect closer links between transport and public health in order to help tackle obesity and improve air quality as well as the more traditional transport objectives of supporting access to jobs, reducing social exclusion, and tackling road congestion,” he says. “Wider environmental objectives around climate change may come back up the agenda, but current signs are that they are largely subsidiary.”

As the proportion of local transport funding controlled by central government falls, councils will be better placed to re-evaluate the balance between transport’s various objectives, explains Duckenfield, who will be speaking at Smarter Travel LIVE. “Promotion of active travel cuts across most of these objectives so will be fundamental. Combined with the rise of shared transport and urban mobility solutions, this could mean that support for traditional bus services comes under threat.” 

The growing emphasis on capital investment rather than revenue funding means that urban realm improvement projects may well become increasingly attractive options, says Duckenfield. “Ideally, projects involving investment in walking and cycling infrastructure will be supported by the use of ‘soft’ behaviour change measures, but there is no guarantee this will be the case despite the evidence in their favour.”   

Despite the current interest in autonomous vehicles, electric vehicles, “transport as a service” and the “Internet of Things”, these will have a relatively small impact on everyday travel over the next few years, according to Duckenfield. “Their mainstream adoption is still some years away,“ he says. “On the other hand, there are less cutting edge technologies whose application by a mass audience are much more likely to disrupt existing transport services and operations.”

One example is Uber, he points out, noting that the technology used by Uber is neither cutting edge nor unique. “What it does do is meet a genuine customer need in a low cost, convenient manner. This type of application can be adopted extremely quickly because there are no major barriers to use, unlike with EVs or autonomous vehicles where there are major cost and societal issues to overcome. 

“While we may not know what the next disruptive technological application is, we can be reasonably sure that there will be others on their way and we therefore need to be alert to them.”

The impact of these evolving models on rural areas will require close attention, says Duckenfield. “The dispersed nature of rural populations means they do not provide the economies of scale to attract private sector interest. So, if we are to avoid a two-tier country, and ultimately an exodus from the countryside, additional public sector support will be required, for example through ‘total transport’ and the integration of transport services across departments.”

Tony Duckenfield will be discussing the need for joined-up transport policies at Smarter Travel LIVE, which takes place at ArenaMK Milton Keynes on 17 -18 March 2016