23,300 zero-emission buses queue in 10-year order pipeline

The Department for Transport has published estimates of a substantial 10-year zero-emission bus (ZEB) order pipeline from local transport authorities and bus operators. 

The total purchases add up to an estimated 23,381 ZEBs over the next 10 years, peaking in 2029 and 2030 with potentially between 2,500 and 3,000 a year.

Publication of the pipeline data was one of the key objectives of the UK Bus Manufacturing Expert Panel, set up a year ago by transport minister Simon Lightwood.

The panel encourages industry bodies to explore ways of ensuring that the UK remains a leader in bus building by supporting better planning, investment and capacity management for UK bus manufacturers, while helping local authorities to deliver their transport ambitions through improved  alignment with decarbonisation and public transport goals.

The report indicates a strong long-term demand pipeline and highlights a sustained market for vehicle manufacturers, supporting continued investment in production capacity and supply chains. 

The total purchases add up to an estimated 23,381 ZEBs over the next 10 years.

Upper and lower estimates of likely ZEB orders for next 10 years

Year	Lower estimate	Upper estimate
2026	1450	1750
2027	2050	2250
2028	2225	2550
2029	2450	2575
2030	2375	3050
2031	1925	2300
2032	1925	2275
2033	1225	1725
2034	975	1625
2035	800	1425
Total	17,400	21,525

Single-deck buses remain a smaller but essential segment. Ongoing demand highlights continued importance for suburban, rural and inter-urban routes. For single-deck ZEBs, the total purchases add up to an estimated 6,726 over the next 10 years.

Double-deck ZEBs represent the largest share of expected demand. This reflects their central role in high-capacity urban routes and continued replacement cycles in major metropolitan authorities and aligns with zero-emission fleet strategies in dense city areas. For double-deck ZEBs, the total purchases add up to an estimated 12,673 over the next 10 years.

The DfT advises that the pipeline represents the majority, but by no means all, of anticipated ZEB orders across the UK over the next decade. It does not capture procurement plans of all small and medium-sized operators.