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Phil Goodwin: Issue 550 23 Jul 2010

Thoughts on peak car – part two

The nature of the research problem centres on how we determine whether a flattening curve means that car use is heading towards a steady state or a decline

Phil Goodwin

The trend in car use has been less than forecast, over a much longer period than the recession, but exactly the same rather flat current pattern would appear if car use is approaching saturation, or if it is on the turn towards a downward future trend. The only research methodology certain to distinguish between these two cases is called ‘waiting’, but this unfortunately takes too long to inform planning and policy. So the research question is to find quicker ways of assessing which...

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